Context: Pakistan brokered a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran that took effect Wednesday, but the scope remains disputed. The United States and Israel claim the ceasefire does not include Lebanon, while Iran and mediator Pakistan insist it does. Iran’s 10-point proposal includes maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz (still blocked) and possibly charging ships up to $2 million to pass through. Israel and Lebanon are scheduled to meet in Washington next week, with UK PM Keir Starmer touring the Gulf trying to shore up the fragile deal. Vice President Vance is heading to Pakistan for formal talks this weekend.

Context: Israel launched a massive wave of strikes across Lebanon on Wednesday, hitting crowded residential areas full of displaced civilians, not just the usual southern suburbs. At least 182 people were killed Wednesday alone, according to Lebanon’s health ministry—the deadliest single day of the Israel-Hezbollah war. Hezbollah responded Friday by targeting Israel’s Ashdod naval base. Air defense systems also activated in Tehran less than 24 hours after the ceasefire was announced, signaling continued instability despite the truce.

Context: Pakistan emerged as the surprise mediator that got both sides to agree to a two-week pause. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is hosting the first formal talks in Islamabad starting Friday. Pakistan has maintained relationships with both the US and Iran, plus strong military connections with Iran’s IRGC, positioning it uniquely to serve as a go-between.

Context: The war triggered a severe energy crisis. Even with a ceasefire, Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz and hasn’t reopened it to normal shipping. The IMF is preparing €42.9 billion in emergency aid and warning of “lasting economic damage” with 45 million people facing food insecurity. TotalEnergies shut a major Saudi refinery after attacks, cutting about 15% of its output.

Context: As part of its ceasefire terms, Iran is pushing for ongoing control of the Strait of Hormuz and the ability to levy what officials suggest could be as much as $2 million per ship passing through. The proposal has sparked outrage and confusion about who would actually profit from the war’s aftermath. Trump initially hailed the strait’s reopening, then six minutes later called on Iran to reopen it—highlighting the confusion over the deal’s actual terms.

Context: NATO countries originally committed to helping reopen the strait once hostilities ended, but Trump is now demanding immediate action. The issue is deepening rifts in the alliance. Turkey’s trade minister told Euronews that NATO has no obligation to intervene. One analysis asks whether NATO can even survive if Trump pulls the US out, noting the alliance is “closer to a break than ever.”

Context: Kuwait publicly blamed “Iran and its proxies” for a drone attack, while Iran has denied involvement. Gulf countries remain deeply skeptical of Iran’s ceasefire terms, particularly the demands for controlling the Strait of Hormuz and requiring US combat troops to leave the region.

Context: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainian personnel have been operating in multiple Gulf countries, using domestically produced air defense systems to intercept Iranian drones. The announcement raises questions about what agreements Ukraine has made with Gulf states or Western powers in exchange for this military assistance.

Sources: Euronews

Context: Netanyahu agreed to Lebanon peace talks under US pressure just hours after vowing to continue Israel’s campaign. His critics say being sidelined by Trump’s direct deal with Iran has damaged Israel’s standing in Washington and left war objectives unachieved. For Trump, one analyst notes, “this is seen as an unmitigated failure, this war”—the administration wanted a quick victory and instead got bogged down for over a month.

Context: Iran lost significant military capability and leadership in the war, but regime survival was the core goal. One analyst notes that “for Iran, survival was always a victory.” The ceasefire also shifted power internally toward more hardline actors, particularly within the Revolutionary Guard, according to regional experts.