Key development: VP JD Vance landed in Islamabad to start direct talks with Iran—the highest-level US-Iran meeting since 1979.

Diplomacy

The US and Iran just started face-to-face negotiations in Pakistan. This is the first time officials from both countries have sat down together since the Islamic Revolution. (Al Jazeera, France 24, Euronews)

Context: JD Vance is leading the US delegation, which includes Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. Iran sent a 70-member team led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif called the talks “make or break” and said weeks of back-channel diplomacy made them possible. The talks are supposed to make the two-week ceasefire permanent, but there’s already confusion about what’s actually on the table.

Sources: Al Jazeera France 24 Euronews
Iran and Pakistan say Lebanon is covered by the ceasefire, while the US and Israel say it doesn’t apply there at all. Iran demanded that Lebanon be included as a last-minute condition. (France 24)

Context: This disagreement is causing real confusion about what the ceasefire even means. While negotiations were starting in Islamabad, Israel was still pounding Lebanon—and both sides are claiming the other is violating the deal. Iran won’t start serious talks unless its “preconditions” are met, which apparently include Lebanon coverage. Vance warned Tehran not to “play” the US.

Sources: France 24 France 24
Israel and Lebanon will hold talks in Washington on Tuesday, but Israel says it won’t discuss stopping the fight with Hezbollah. Netanyahu greenlit the meeting under US pressure right after heavy strikes killed over 1,950 Lebanese. (France 24)

Context: The two countries have no diplomatic relations, so this is the first formal contact. But Israel’s position makes a ceasefire unlikely—they’re treating this as separate from the Iran talks and say Hezbollah is the main obstacle to peace. Lebanon’s been getting hammered throughout the supposed ceasefire period, with over 350 killed on the first day of the US-Iran truce alone.

Sources: France 24 France 24

Economy

Iran wants to charge up to $2 million per ship to cross the Strait of Hormuz—and keep control of the waterway as part of any permanent deal. Trump says he won’t accept tolls and the strait will reopen “soon.” (Al Jazeera, France 24)

Context: This is one of Iran’s 10 conditions for ending the war. They say the money would help rebuild bombed infrastructure. The strait has been closed for weeks, triggering a massive energy crisis. There’s confusion about whether it’s even open now—the White House spokesperson first celebrated its reopening, then six minutes later called on Iran to reopen it. If it stays closed for three more weeks, Europe will face critical aviation fuel shortages.

Sources: Al Jazeera France 24 Euronews
US inflation jumped to 3.3% in March as energy prices spiked from the war. The Hormuz closure is driving the biggest energy shock in decades. (Euronews)

Context: Consumer prices rose sharply last month, with the war’s impact hitting gas and heating costs. Markets are getting whipsawed by contradictory statements about the ceasefire and whether shipping lanes are actually open. The uncertainty itself is moving oil prices.

Sources: Euronews

Military Operations

Israel killed at least 182 people in Lebanon on Wednesday in the single deadliest day of the war. Strikes hit central Beirut without warning even as the US-Iran ceasefire supposedly took effect. (France 24)

Context: Lebanon’s health ministry says nearly 900 were wounded. Israel launched wave after wave of strikes on Beirut and other areas with no advance notice. Residents said they thought “Beirut was going to collapse.” The death toll has now passed 1,950 since the broader conflict began. Israel insists the Iran ceasefire doesn’t apply to Lebanon, while Iran says it does—so both sides claim the other is violating the deal.

Sources: France 24 France 24
Hezbollah fired a rocket that hit the northern Israeli city of Safed, injuring several people. The strikes continued even as ceasefire talks got underway. (Euronews)

Context: Emergency services deployed quickly to treat casualties. The rocket attack came amid the broader confusion about whether Lebanon is covered by any truce. Both sides are still actively fighting.

Sources: Euronews

Israel Policy

Netanyahu’s critics are calling the US-Iran ceasefire a “strategic failure” that left Israel sidelined with none of its war goals met. Israel didn’t get regime change, didn’t eliminate Iran’s missile capabilities, and didn’t stop the nuclear program. (France 24)

Context: The ceasefire was negotiated entirely between Washington and Tehran, leaving Israel out of the loop. Netanyahu finally made a statement saying Israel is ready to “return to battle at any moment” but didn’t address the fact that none of the stated objectives were achieved. With his hands tied on Iran, he agreed to Lebanon talks under US pressure—right after vowing to continue the campaign there.

Sources: France 24 France 24

International

Spain said NATO won’t help reopen the Strait of Hormuz because it falls outside the alliance’s area. Trump’s been pressuring allies to assist with restoring navigation. (Euronews)

Context: Spain’s foreign minister flatly stated “NATO will not participate in this war” as Trump ramps up calls for allied support. The Hormuz closure is causing economic pain in Europe, but NATO members are drawing a line on military involvement.

Sources: Euronews

[UNCONFIRMED] Ukraine says its troops have been shooting down Iranian drones “in several countries” in the Gulf region using Ukrainian-made interceptors. President Zelensky announced the deployments but didn’t say what Ukraine’s getting in return. (Euronews)

Context: This would mean Ukrainian military experts are actively operating in the Middle East, providing air defense against Iran. It’s unclear which Gulf countries are hosting them or what kind of deal Kyiv struck. Ukraine likely wants something in exchange—probably weapons, money, or diplomatic support.

Sources: Euronews

What to watch: Whether Iran actually shows up to negotiate in good faith or uses the Lebanon dispute to walk away from the table.