Key development: Israel apparently ran a secret military base inside Iraq during the war with Iran and used it to launch attacks.
Military Operations
Israel operated a covert military base in Iraq during the war and used it to launch strikes on Iran. If confirmed, this would represent an extraordinary violation of Iraqi sovereignty and a dramatic expansion of covert cooperation between Israel and regional actors. (Al Jazeera, WSJ)
Context: The Wall Street Journal broke the story that Israeli troops used a secret base in Iraq to conduct attacks against Iran during the conflict. Al Jazeera reported that Israeli forces reportedly used this base to launch attacks against Iran during the war. The revelation could reshape our understanding of how the war was actually fought and represents a significant breach of Iraqi sovereignty.
| Sources: Al Jazeera | Al Jazeera Video |
(Update) US and Iranian forces traded fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. This marks the first real challenge to the ceasefire—sporadic clashes erupted after the US fired at two empty oil tankers trying to break the blockade. (France 24)
Context: The clashes started when the US fired at two empty oil tankers trying to break the blockade by heading for an empty Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman. By late Friday, US and Iranian forces were exchanging fire directly. This marks an escalation from earlier tanker incidents to actual military engagement, testing whether the fragile ceasefire can hold.
Sources: France 24
A US airstrike killed 155 people at an Iranian school in February, including 120 children. American military investigation says they hit the wrong target—they meant to strike an adjacent military base. (France 24)
Context: The February 28th missile strike in Minab, Hormozgan Province remains the deadliest single attack in the war. According to US media reports of a preliminary military investigation, the strike was made in error and the actual target was an adjacent Islamic Revolutionary Guards Military Base. France 24 gained rare access to the bomb site for this report.
Sources: France 24
Diplomacy
(Update) Iran threatened to enrich uranium to weapons-grade if attacked again, and Trump says the ceasefire has a “one percent chance” of surviving. Tehran issued a concrete new threat while Trump rejected Tehran’s latest proposal—talks are deteriorating rapidly. (Euronews)
Context: Tehran issued a concrete new threat to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels in response to any future attacks. Trump rejected Tehran’s latest proposal and gave the ceasefire a “one percent chance” of holding. This represents a major deterioration from earlier diplomatic efforts, with Iran’s chief negotiator warning the US must accept their peace proposal or face “failure.”
Sources: Euronews
Regional Actors
(Update) Qatar formally warned Iran not to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz to “blackmail” Gulf states. Doha issued a diplomatic warning on Tuesday as Qatar and Turkey back ongoing mediation efforts—a Gulf country publicly pushing back on Iran shifts regional dynamics. (Euronews)
Context: Qatar issued a diplomatic warning to Tehran on Tuesday against using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage against Gulf states. Doha and Ankara are backing ongoing mediation efforts to end the war and restore access to the vital waterway. This marks a concrete new position from Qatar that changes the regional diplomatic landscape.
Sources: Euronews
Economy
US inflation hit 3.8% in April as the war drove gas prices up 28% in a year. Real wages fell for the first time in three years—the war is directly hitting American wallets. (Euronews)
Context: The Iran war’s economic impact is now showing up clearly in consumer price data. Petrol costs surged 28% year-over-year, pushing overall inflation to 3.8%. This marks the first decline in real wages in three years, according to government data.
Sources: Euronews
US Treasury is directing banks to crack down on Iranian money laundering networks. Part of the pressure campaign to force Iran into a deal as negotiations stall. (Euronews)
Context: The Treasury Department has instructed banks to intensify monitoring of Iranian money laundering schemes that enable funds from sanctioned oil sales. This is part of the broader strategy to economically pressure Iran as peace talks falter.
Sources: Euronews
US Policy
(Update) [UNCONFIRMED] Trump is heading to China this week looking for any deal he can get. According to Euronews, his position has weakened with the Iran quagmire, high oil prices, and shrinking support at home—European officials are watching nervously. (Euronews)
Context: Trump is traveling to China this week for talks, representing a new diplomatic initiative beyond the stalled US-Iran negotiations. According to Euronews, his negotiating position has deteriorated due to the Iran situation, soaring oil prices, and declining domestic support. European officials are watching nervously.
Sources: Euronews
What to watch: Whether the Strait of Hormuz shooting turns into sustained combat or just another ceasefire violation that both sides walk back.