Key development: Joe Kent, the US director of counterterrorism, just resigned over the Iran war—saying there’s no imminent terror threat that justifies it.

US & Allied Politics

The top US counterterrorism official quit because he can’t support the Iran war. Joe Kent said there’s no urgent terror threat that warrants this conflict. (Al Jazeera, Euronews, Reuters)

Context: Kent ran the National Counterterrorism Center and walked away in protest, arguing the administration’s justification doesn’t match the actual threat level. This is a rare public break from a senior intelligence official during active military operations.

Sources: Al Jazeera Euronews Reuters
Trump admitted Iran’s retaliation caught him off guard, even though intelligence agencies warned him it was coming. That’s according to officials familiar with the briefings. (Reuters)

Context: This undercuts Trump’s public messaging about being in control of the situation. Intelligence warnings were apparently delivered but either ignored or dismissed before Iran struck back at US positions.

Sources: Reuters

Trump’s lashing out at NATO for not helping in the Strait of Hormuz, calling their reluctance a “stupid mistake.” Most European allies are declining to send ships. (Reuters, Euronews)

Context: The US has been trying to assemble a coalition to escort tankers through Hormuz after Iran effectively closed the strait. France, Finland, Portugal, and Greece have all said no. Macron specifically ruled out French participation, saying the situation needs to calm down first. Finland’s foreign minister told Euronews that NATO isn’t obligated to help with Trump’s Iran operation, though other sources report Trump seeking German minesweepers for the mission.

Sources: Reuters Euronews Euronews
Trump wants to delay his planned meeting with Xi Jinping by “a month or so” because of the Iran war. He needs to focus on the Middle East right now. (Al Jazeera) [UNCONFIRMED]

Context: The two leaders were supposed to meet soon to discuss trade and other bilateral issues. Pushing it back signals Trump sees the Iran situation as consuming his bandwidth for the near term.

Sources: Al Jazeera

Targeting & Military Strikes

Israel says it killed Ali Larijani, one of Iran’s top security officials, in a strike on Tehran. Iran hasn’t confirmed it yet. (Euronews)

Context: Larijani was a senior advisor to Khamenei and a former parliament speaker—basically part of the inner circle running Iran’s security apparatus. If true, this would be one of the highest-level assassinations since the war started. The lack of Iranian confirmation is notable given the seniority of the target.

Sources: Euronews Euronews
Israel confirmed it killed a Basij militia commander. The Basij are now reportedly using schools and children as cover to avoid airstrikes. (Al Jazeera, Euronews)

Context: The Basij are a paramilitary force loyal to the regime—think neighborhood enforcers and protest suppressors. Israel’s been going after their leadership structure systematically. The allegations about using civilian cover come from Israeli sources.

Sources: Al Jazeera Euronews
(Update) A hotel in Baghdad got hit, while attacks on the US embassy there were intercepted. Part of the ongoing strikes on American positions across Iraq. (Al Jazeera)

Context: Iraqi militias aligned with Iran have been hitting US targets since the war began. The embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone has been under repeated attack, though US air defenses have mostly held.

Sources: Al Jazeera

Strait of Hormuz & Energy

The UAE’s oil production just dropped below half its normal output because fields near Hormuz had to shut down. US officials say some tanker traffic is gradually resuming through the strait, though it remains far from normal. (Reuters)

Context: The UAE produces about 3 million barrels a day normally. Losing more than half of that is a massive hit to global supply. While officials report traffic beginning to move again, the Strait has been effectively closed for days, forcing major disruptions.

Sources: Reuters Reuters
If Hormuz stays shut, Middle East oil exports will drop by at least 60% per day. Asia’s energy lifeline is basically in crisis mode. (Reuters)

Context: About a third of the world’s seaborne oil passes through Hormuz. The closure is already hammering Gulf economies and sending oil prices through the roof. Some European companies are rerouting shipments overland through Saudi Arabia and the UAE to bypass the strait entirely.

Sources: Reuters Euronews
Spain’s releasing 11.5 million barrels from its strategic reserves to deal with the energy crunch. Other countries are weighing similar moves. (Euronews)

Context: This is the kind of thing governments do when they’re genuinely worried about supply disruptions causing economic damage. The US has also been burning through its strategic reserves since the war started.

Sources: Euronews

Humanitarian & Economic Impact

The UN says 45 million more people are at risk of hunger if the Iran war continues. That’s on top of existing food crises. (Al Jazeera) [UNCONFIRMED]

Context: The World Food Programme is warning that the combination of disrupted shipping, spiking food prices, and regional instability could trigger famine conditions across the Middle East and parts of Africa that depend on Gulf trade routes.

Sources: Al Jazeera

Iran just raised its minimum wage by 60% as war and sanctions hammer household budgets. Inflation’s out of control. (Euronews, Reuters)

Context: This is the regime trying to keep people from starving or rioting as the currency collapses and prices skyrocket. A 60% wage hike sounds dramatic but likely doesn’t keep pace with actual inflation.

Sources: Euronews Reuters
Gulf economies are sliding toward recession as the war kills trade and investment. The UAE especially is getting crushed. (Al Jazeera)

Context: Dubai and Abu Dhabi built their economies on being stable business hubs in an unstable region. That pitch doesn’t work when missiles are flying and their airspace keeps getting shut down. Citibank’s keeping most of its UAE offices closed because of the security situation.

Sources: Al Jazeera Reuters

What to watch: Whether any European allies crack and agree to help Trump in Hormuz—and whether Israel’s assassination claims about Larijani get confirmed or denied by Iran.