Context: This is the biggest one-day oil price surge in four decades. Brent crude opened around $95 on Friday and shot up after Iran torched Bahrain’s only refinery and hit other Gulf energy sites over the weekend. The spike is hitting global markets hard—European stocks are down, bond yields are up, and countries that depend on Middle Eastern oil (basically all of Asia) have very few alternatives.

Context: France says G7 finance ministers discussed coordinated reserve releases today, but no one’s committed yet. The EU is scrambling because this oil shock could reignite inflation just when they thought they had it under control. Putin offered to sell more Russian oil and gas to Europe as prices surge. [UNCONFIRMED]

Context: Bangladesh imports most of its oil from the Middle East and doesn’t have much storage capacity. With shipping disrupted and prices spiking, they’re one of the first countries to impose domestic restrictions. This could be a preview of what’s coming for other import-dependent nations.

Sources: Al Jazeera

Context: The first Iranian missile that wandered into Turkish airspace was shot down on March 4. Now there’s been another. The US temporarily suspended consular services in Adana, in southern Turkey, citing security concerns.

Context: Bapco, the state-owned refinery, processes about 267,000 barrels a day. The fire is still burning and Iran’s targeting of Gulf energy infrastructure is getting more aggressive. This is day 10 of the war and Iran’s shifting from missile strikes on military targets to hitting the oil and gas facilities that fund the Gulf states.

Sources: Euronews

Context: Saudi Arabia has tried to stay neutral in this war, but Iran keeps hitting targets around the Gulf and the Saudis are losing patience. This is the first public indication they might get directly involved if the strikes continue.

Sources: Reuters

Context: Yesterday we learned who Mojtaba was. Today the Assembly of Experts made it official and the world started weighing in. Trump reportedly said the war with Iran is “largely over” and he’s already thinking about who should replace the Khameneis entirely—though this contradicts what’s actually happening on the ground as Iran continues launching strikes. Mojtaba is considered a hardliner and has zero interest in negotiating with the US, so this probably means the war drags on.

Context: This appears to be part of the new leadership’s crackdown. Iran has a large diaspora that’s been vocally opposing the regime, especially since the war started. Threatening their families’ property back home is a classic intimidation tactic.

Sources: Euronews

Context: This official statement signals Iran’s unwillingness to negotiate an end to hostilities while under attack, contradicting Trump’s optimistic assessment that the war is “largely over.”

Sources: Euronews

Context: European capitals are panicking about oil prices and the risk of the war spilling into the eastern Mediterranean. France just deployed 12 warships to the Med and Red Sea to defend allies. Macron flew to Cyprus for a trilateral summit with Greece and Cyprus, where he said “an attack on Cyprus is an attack on Europe”—a not-so-subtle warning to Iran.

Context: Prime Minister Takaichi is dealing with her first major foreign policy test and the timing is terrible. Japan imports almost all its energy, so this oil shock hits them harder than most. She’s meeting Trump soon and there’s tension over how closely Japan should align with US military action.

Sources: Reuters

Context: This represents Russia’s first public diplomatic intervention in the conflict, signaling Moscow’s concern about regional stability despite its strategic partnership with Iran.

Sources: Reuters

Context: This contradicts what’s actually happening on the ground—Iran is still launching strikes and just torched a major refinery. Either Trump is discussing Iran’s military capacity to sustain a long war rather than current operations, or the assessment is wildly optimistic. The comment about having a Khamenei replacement picked out suggests the US is planning for regime change, not just a military campaign.

Context: This is the same legal mechanism Trump used before to skip congressional review when selling arms to allies. It’s controversial because lawmakers from both parties have been questioning whether the US should keep arming Israel given how the war is going.

Sources: Reuters